① Domestic GT market continue to expand driven by air pollution control and energy supply reform at national level
In 2016, we see noticeable growth from China in GT orders among a sluggish global market. As McCoy Power data reported, China is the leading country markets during 3Q’16 with 1.5 GWe of awarded capacity. For the 9M’16 period, it reported 3.4 GWe capacity order, as the 3rd largest country market(after Egypt and USA).
NexTurbine foresees the growth is likely to continue, as Chinese government takes concrete actions to control coal and prioritize gas. In 2016, China's National Energy Admission(NEA) issued order to cancel 12.4GWe planned coal fired power, and more are expected to be canceled or closed. Late in December, NEA issued "Opinion on accelerating the use of natural gas" to promote natural gas as a dominant source of China's energy system in the future. The "Opinion" is now circulated among related agencies for feedback before its official release.
② China's "One Belt One Road" investment will boost regional infrastructure development in emerging GT market
Emerging markets are the growth engines of global GT market. Several markets are posting record or near record capacity performances during the 9M’16 period including Egypt (second best year ever), Oman (best year ever), Argentina (second best year ever), Bahrain (best year ever), Turkmenistan (second best year ever), and Bangladesh (third best year ever), as reported by McCoy Power Report.
NexTurbine finds most of these countries are also within the coverage of the "One Belt, One Road" initiative, proposed by China's president Xi. To facilitate this initiative, Silk Road Infrastructure Fund, Asian Infra Investment Bank, and New Development Bank are formed in 2014 with up to $290bn fund to be invested on infrastructure projects in "One Belt, One Road" countries. Backed by these funding and cooperation initiatives, GT manufactures and EPCs in China will be more actively engaged in project bidding and developing in emerging markets.
③ China manufacture may rewrite the competitive scenario of global GT market
Upon the McCoy Power Report, Ansaldo Energia already reported a record gross capacity performance during 9M’16, should easily break its record annual capacity share level of 5.0% recorded during 12M’02. And by the end of Oct. 2016, Shanghai Electric reported 18 GT units since 2014.
NexTurbine notices that Shanghai Electric is speeding up its business integration with Ansaldo Energia, of which it owns 40% shares. It aims on both manufacturing and service market ambitiously, and works tirelessly with a start-up spirit. This may bring more vibration into a global GT market which is already fiercely competitive.
China is the second largest GT capacity market over the past ten years with 73.1 GWe of awards, according to McCoy record through 12M'15. NexTurbine foresees China will continue to empower the growth of global GT market, but playing more diversified role as project investor and owner, builder, and equipment supplier, domestically and globally.
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